Saddam’s Execution might be a "rallying-point" for the coming together of Shias and Sunnis, around the world. This would make them a potent and deadly force, which the American Military Might may not be able to easily defeat or suppress. Osama is still Alive and Kicking! That apart, one can certainly expect a strong reaction, a violent reaction for sure, on the American soil in the near future or not-so-distant future. American Interests [like American Embassy, Business Houses] the World Over would be in a state of perpetual fear and the security threat would need to be on a state of High-Alert perpetually.

Anyway, that is not the point of this blog. I am trying to analyse the impact of a violent reaction - by [Sunni] Muslims on American Soil – on Indian IT sector in particular and India in general.

The likely impact of this deadly/violent reaction by Muslims against America would be a panicky reaction by the American Businesses; and the first casualty would be the IT-Spend. This would have a direct bearing on Indian IT Industry as many IT projects would either get delayed enormously or shelved. And the Indian Economy - even a School Child knows - would nosedive without American Money in Indian IT.

Apart from IT, Cokes, Pepsis, McDonalds, KFCs, etc in India would be the target of violent Muslim-Reaction; and Political Parties supporting or espousing the cause of Muslims in India, would follow suit. Just to show solidarity with the Muslims, these political parties might side with the Muslims and dump the American Businesses while they attack the Business Interests. At worst – these political parties can be expected to keep quiet and watch the attacks – even if they are ruling the States. The only major Political Party that would not covertly support the Muslims is Vajpayee/Advani led Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP]. So America would do well to openly or covertly support BJP than Sonia Gandhi’s Congress Party to safeguard it’s interests in India.

There are many positives for India if America is Attacked and Indian IT Sector Crashes - the much-hyped Real Estate Prices WILL Fall; Inflation MIGHT Reduce; Sensex WILL Nosedive; Salaries WILL Reduce to realistic levels. And thereafter, I expect the Indian Market to stabilize at a particular level with a benchmark with clearly defined Upper-Cut-Off and Lower-Cut-Off limits for swings, instead of the current pattern of High-Rise and Steep-Fall Cycle.

The political impact would be segregation and consolidation of Hindus and Muslims in India. Thereby Hindu Votes would get consolidated at a National Level and hence BJP would stand to gain in this process.

That apart, I am forced to recall the post 9/11 memories - when IT jobs in India took a heavy hit – in fact many jobs vanished; hundreds of weddings were suspended/cancelled for fear of a stable future for the software-groom; and economy plummeted to record close-to-zero growth for many subsequent quarters. Will History Repeat itself?

I feel Saddam’s execution is definitely a Milestone:

For Americans a new-phase-of-life starts now…A Life of PERPETUAL FEAR; and for Indians, A Life of REALISTIC BENCHMARKS in all walks of Life...hopefully.

Ganesh Babu N R